by Michael Kenney - March 24, 2008
Adlai Stevenson in 1952, and Thomas Dewey in 1948.
Those are the last two candidates to emerge as nominees as the result of a brokered convention. They both lost.
76 years ago, a brokered convention delivered Franklin Roosevelt as the Democratic nominee, and FDR is the last person to actually win the presidency after surviving the damage done at one of these insane affairs. He pulled it off.
In 1932.
I hate to keep bringing it up (no I don't) but I do business in Chicago, and so I'm familiar with clout. You know the old saying about how people wouldn't like sausage if they knew how said food was prepared? I think the same thing about politics in general, and Chicago politics in particular. I've seen aldermen make neighborhood-altering decisions for a few thousand bucks. Do we really want just a hundred or two people making such a critical decision after 25,000,000 Democrats have turned out nationwide at primaries and caucuses?
I say no, and for reasons I'm sorry to say that are less than altruistic.
Control of the American government means money for those in control. Big money. Our government spends trillions of dollars. A number followed by twelve zeros. There are very large and powerful forces dependent upon contracts given out by the American government. When not just the party nomination, but the presidency (and in this case I believe it) is up for grabs, those forces will exert great pressure on those couple of hundred people who have been given the power to decide. Great pressure. Monetary pressure. Blackmail stuff. Bribery. Sexual favors. Promises of future deals. Offers that will change more than a neighborhood for a few thousand bucks.
Not that I would mind watching all that stuff, because I'm sure it would make for some great Quiblit submissions, but I think that would be selfish of me.
A brokered convention is exactly what the Democratic Party does not want, and the powers know it. Picture the stomach turning sure to occur when the 2 candidates wheel and deal for super delegates, uncommitted or otherwise before our very eyes.
Imagine the entire country arguing over Donna Brazile's deciding vote. Imagine Donna Brazile knowing her decision will determine the party's nominee. (No wonder she initially said she'd flee the fuckin' building.)
Never mind the amped up mudslinging. You thought it was bad so far? If this party was crazy enough to allow this match to continue until Denver, by then I'd know who sold Obama his dope and Hillary her botox.
But it isn't going to happen. Once John Edwards officially dropped out, his 61 committed delegates went into the free agency pool, and they crept out from under the DNC's thumb. 7 went to Obama last week. 54 remain in play, but not for long. The DNC is good at math too.
The DNC knows that power lies in the White House, and the longer they allow this to continue, the less likely that either Clinton or Obama would win a general election in November after the vivisection performed on the 'winner' in the Dem primaries.
12 weeks tops, and this thing will be over for reasons of math and momentum. I suspect that Hillary will win in Pennsylvania, and Obama in North Carolina. The net result will be something looking frighteningly to the DNC like a bloodbath in Denver.
And they can't have that. Conventional wisdom shows that brokered conventions don't yield winners. The reasons are obvious.
If you couldn't win a convincing majority in your own party, why should you expect to win in the General Election?
The American people just watched you rip each other a new asshole, and now you want Dems to unite the front and support the nominee?
The American people just watched you wheel and deal in Denver like a pack of Chicago political whores in search of power, and you want them to now trust you?
There's a reason Romney's kicking it in Alta. There's a reason Rudy dropped after 3 months of tanning in Tampa. The Republican party understands the importance of picking a candidate early.
June, I'd guess. At the latest.
Besides already clinching a win in total states, it seems like Obama will still be ahead in delegates and pop vote. Barring the unforeseen kiddie porn charges or new Vince Foster evidence that should lead Howard Dean, Nancy Pelosi, Ted Kennedy, Bob Shrum, Jim Carville, Monkeyboy Begala, and whomever else to the doorstep of Senator Barack Obama (D-Il.) If this thing plays out the way I suspect, they'll urge Obama to offer the VP slot to Senator Clinton.
And this thing will be over, because she'd be crazy to say no. It's her only chance to see 1600 again, and if she says yes it's a lock.
I hate to keep pointing this out (no I don't) but this Democratic voting business is new to me. This is one fucked up bunch. I kinda like it. Reminds me a bit of my family. But if I'm going to vote for a Democrat, I have to be sure things are going to change. For the better.
Along with my first vote for a Democratic president, I'd like to offer my services as a slogan writer for my new party.
Obama/Clinton in '08~ Because We're Not Fucking Stupid!
Michael Kenney is a Chicago contractor.